Brexit Another Strategic Surprise

23 Jul

The School of International Futures has published Professor Michael F. Oppenheimer‘s, Clinical Professor, NYU School of Professional Studies Center for Global Affairs, reaction to the Brexit referendum and the role that strategic futures analysis could have played in anticipating and preparing for its outcome.

Brexit now offers another in a series of object lessons in surprise, and how not to prepare. David Sanger, in his New York Times news analysis of June 27, observed that “Like the Arab Spring, the result of Britain’s referendum took Washington by surprise. As late as early last week there was something between a hope and an assumption that the vote would ‘go the other way’, as Secretary of State John Kerry said in Rome on Sunday. As a result, there was no serious planning for the all-consuming work of reimagining the European relationship, a task that will face President Obama for the next six months, and his successor for years to come.” This complacency was, unfortunately, reinforced by experts and observers, including the ‘super forecasters’ of Philip Tetlock’s Good Judgment project. who predicted a win for the Remain campaign.’

Read the full blog post here: Brexit Another Strategic Surprise

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